This is very similar to conclusions from
TLDR
Given the ever-increasing impact of technology, global catastrophes seem inevitable. Every system is subject to forces that strengthens it and threatens it. Even if the destabilizing forces are rare, on a long enough timelines, one of them will get traction and cause an existential catastrophe.
Definition
Given the ever-increasing impact of technology, global catastrophes seem inevitable.
Then: Messages were sent via horseback or ships, taking days to months. Now: instant messaging and video calls connect people globally in real-time.
TNT Blockbuster Bomb (1930s): a 2-ton blockbuster bomb could create a blast radius of approximately 100 meters (0.06 miles). The tsar atomic bomb (1960s): The fireball radius was about 2.3 kilometers (1.4 miles), and the thermal radiation radius (causing third-degree burns) extended up to 100 kilometers (62 miles).
Every system is subject to forces that strengthens it and threatens it.
There are cancerous cells in organisms
Enders in humans. There is predictable number of “Enders” people who try to kill large amount of others. In China there is a percentage of people who decide to do mass-killings as in US. However, in China they go with knives, and in US because of ubiquitousness of guns, they go with guns.
In each nation there seems to be a similar percentage of "Enders" - individuals inclined towards causing widespread harm [I heard this on a podcast
In places like China, where guns are less accessible, such individuals might resort to knives for mass attacks. However, in the U.S., with the widespread availability of firearms, they often turn to guns. That’s the reason we hear of US ones and not Chinese ones. That’s likely why we hear more about mass shootings in the U.S. than such incidents in China.
Even if the destabilizing forces are rare, on a long enough timelines, one of them will get traction and unleash the existential catastrophe.
That is a catastrophe of the system’s size.
Other thoughts
- This may be the answer to Fermi paradox.
- The only way to survive is to escape outside the system, to be so far to be not in the connection with the system.